Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Bearish Breakouts Hint at Deeper Losses

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) recovered from weekly lows in early Thursday trading, rising above $3,380 after dipping to $3,362. The rebound followed heightened risk aversion across global markets amid escalating geopolitical tensions and persistent trade-related uncertainty.

While political developments in the Middle East remain fluid, investors are increasingly seeking shelter in precious metals to hedge against broader market instability.

“Markets are pricing in a higher risk premium,” said a commodities strategist at a Tokyo-based firm, noting that gold’s role as a defensive asset is once again in focus. Still, the rebound remains shallow. Year-to-date, gold is up just under 12%, but the upside appears to be constrained by macroeconomic policy headwinds.

Silver Holds Gains Near $36.75, Tracks Broader Market Sentiment

Silver (XAG/USD) also posted a modest gain, trading around $36.75 after touching an intraday high of $36.78. The metal, which often follows gold’s lead, has benefited from recent safe-haven flows but is facing resistance from a firm U.S. Dollar and a tightening monetary outlook.

Fed’s Caution, Stronger Dollar Limit Precious Metals

Despite recent gains, both gold and silver are constrained by the Federal Reserve’s latest policy signals. While the Fed held its benchmark rate steady at 5.25%–5.50 %, the updated dot plot showed fewer projected cuts in 2025–2027. Notably, seven of nineteen Fed officials now expect no cuts this year, and the central bank cited potential inflation risks stemming from new trade tariffs.

As a result, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) rose to a nine-day high, weighing on metals. Gold and silver, which are priced in dollars, typically struggle during periods of dollar strength due to decreased purchasing power for non-dollar investors.

With U.S. markets closed for Juneteenth and no significant data releases ahead, low liquidity may lead to volatile swings. Traders are watching the dollar and geopolitical headlines for short-term direction.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold and silver face near-term pressure after breaking key support levels, with bearish momentum building. Without swift recovery above resistance, further downside toward $3,319 and $35.61 remains likely.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold has broken below a key ascending trendline on the 1-hour chart, now trading around $3,355 after rejecting both the $3,375 and $3,380 resistance levels. The price is also sitting under the 50-EMA ($3,383) and 200-EMA ($3,375), both of which have become near-term resistance.

The bearish breakout from a tightening wedge pattern signals downside momentum, especially after a series of lower highs. There is no bullish candle to suggest that buyers are stepping in yet, and the steep hourly drop hints at increased selling pressure.

Immediate support sits at $3,338, followed by $3,319. Unless gold quickly reclaims $3,375, the breakdown could deepen in the subsequent few sessions.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver has broken below both its rising trendline and the $36.59 support level, now trading near $36.41. The move comes with a sharp rejection of the 50-EMA at $36.80, which had previously capped multiple intraday rallies.

The break also pulls the price closer to the 200-EMA ($36.27), now acting as the next immediate support. Structurally, this break signals a shift in sentiment after days of consolidation. Unless silver recovers $36.59 swiftly, downside targets around $35.97 and $35.61 could come into play.

So far, there’s no bullish reversal candle in sight, and momentum appears to favor sellers as the range finally unwinds to the downside.