Gold (XAUUSD) & Silver Price Forecast: Rising Trendlines Hold, CPI on Radar

Market Overview

Gold prices climbed near $3,330 per ounce during early European trading on Tuesday, recovering from last week’s decline as traders balanced optimism over U.S.–China trade progress with lingering geopolitical and fiscal concerns. Silver followed suit, hovering around $36.55, consolidating within a rising trend channel as technical support held firm.

The yellow metal’s rebound comes amid renewed interest in safe-haven assets. High-level trade discussions between Washington and Beijing extended into a second day in London, signaling potential progress but also underscoring ongoing fragility in global trade relations.

“Investors are cautiously optimistic, but the structural risks to global supply chains remain,” said a commodity strategist at Saxo Bank. “This supports interest in metals like gold and silver that traditionally hedge uncertainty.”

Rising Tensions in Ukraine Add Tailwinds to Gold

Heightened geopolitical risk is also lending support. Reports of approximately 500 drone and missile strikes by Russia in Ukraine over the past 72 hours have kept market sentiment defensive, with traders reluctant to exit safe-haven positions despite broader equity strength.

At the same time, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 99.00, pressured by a combination of concerns about the fiscal deficit and expectations of future policy easing by the Federal Reserve.

Rate Cut Bets Persist Despite Strong Jobs Data

Although the May Nonfarm Payrolls report surprised to the upside with 139,000 new jobs, the broader market is still leaning dovish. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there’s a 60% probability of a rate cut by September.

Gold, which yields no interest, typically performs well when real yields fall or when inflation expectations rise.

Focus Shifts to US Inflation Data This Week

Traders now await the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports, due on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Any surprise in inflation trajectory could reshape the Fed’s policy outlook—and by extension, the near-term trajectory for gold and silver.

Short-Term Forecast

Gold holds above trendline support near $3,302, eyeing resistance at $3,337. Silver stays bullish above $36.31, with upside potential toward $37.46 if momentum breaks above recent highs.

Gold Prices Forecast: Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading around $3,323, rebounding from the rising trendline support near $3,302. Price has pushed back above the 50-hour EMA ($3,328) but remains below the 200-hour EMA ($3,333), which currently acts as dynamic resistance.

A break above this level would expose the next key resistance at $3,337, followed by $3,353. The trendline extending from May’s lows continues to provide structure, suggesting buyers are defending the broader uptrend.

However, failure to clear the moving average cluster could stall momentum. If price slips below $3,310, the next support lies at $3,302. Market direction hinges on reclaiming the 200-EMA or losing trendline support.

Silver (XAG/USD) Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Silver (XAG/USD) is trading at $36.55, stabilizing just above the $36.31 support level within a well-defined ascending channel. The uptrend remains intact, supported by the 50-EMA at $35.75, while the 200-EMA at $34.23 sits further below as long-term support.

The recent pullback from $36.88 has been shallow, indicating that buyers are still active. If silver reclaims $36.88, it could pave the way toward the next resistance at $37.46.

On the downside, losing the channel’s lower boundary may trigger a deeper correction toward $35.81. Momentum remains constructive, but price needs to stay above $36.31 to keep short-term bullish bias valid.