Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: Crude Pulls Back From 5-Month High on Geopolitical Jitters

Market Overview

WTI crude futures slipped below $75 per barrel on Thursday, retreating from recent highs as traders weighed escalating geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on global energy markets.

Despite the decline, prices remained near a five-month high, reflecting continued concern over disruptions near key maritime routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20% of the world’s crude oil supply.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve held rates steady and maintained its projection for two cuts by year-end. This move could stimulate economic activity and bolster oil and natural gas demand in the months ahead.

Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas is pressing against short-term resistance at $4.002 after reclaiming ground above the 23.6% Fibonacci level at $3.958. The price is moving along a modest ascending trendline, with steady support from the 50-EMA at $3.888.

The structure remains constructive, but candles have turned indecisive—wicks on both ends suggest hesitation near the top of the range. A breakout above $4.002 could test $4.035 and then $4.062. If price slips below $3.958, watch for support at $3.930 and $3.908.

The 200-EMA at $3.734 continues to confirm longer-term bullish control. As long as buyers defend the $3.958–$3.930 zone, the path of least resistance leans higher, but momentum needs to pick up soon to avoid a stall.

WTI Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude is treading just above $73.73, holding steady at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent $66.70 to $77.57 rally. Price action remains supported above the $73.40 pivot, with the 50-EMA at $71.82 acting as a solid floor.

There’s a visible series of higher lows, but momentum has stalled, and candles are getting smaller, suggesting indecision rather than strength. No reversal patterns have formed, though a clean break above $75.01 would open the door toward $76.19.

On the flip side, a drop below $72.13 could test $70.85. For now, the structure still favors buyers, but it’s a patience game. A breakout is likely as the range tightens.

Brent Oil Price Forecast

Brent crude is holding steady near $76.83, quietly pressing against the $77.26 resistance. The price is still climbing along a rising trendline that has been respected since June 10, supported by the 50-EMA at $74.34.

Momentum remains bullish but cautious, with recent candles showing small-bodied consolidation—no rejection wicks or reversal signals so far. The 200-EMA, currently at $69.39, reinforces the longer-term trend. A clean break above $77.26 could pave the way toward $78.48 and $79.90.

If buyers falter, immediate support is seen at $75.02, followed by $73.42. So far, structure favors bulls, but the hesitation near resistance suggests traders are waiting for a catalyst before pushing further.