The Day Ahead: Markets Focus Today on Crude Oil News, Lennar Earnings, and Empire State Data

Risk-On Rebound, but Middle East Tensions Still Front and Center

U.S. equity futures are modestly higher early Monday after last week’s sharp declines, as markets digest continued geopolitical escalation. Dow futures are up 63 points, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gain 0.24% and 0.36%, respectively.

Friday’s rout, sparked by Israel’s strike on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory missile attack, pushed the Dow down over 700 points. All three majors closed the week in the red, with investors rotating into energy and safe-haven assets. While hostilities continued over the weekend, early price action suggests markets are attempting to stabilize.

Empire State Survey Sets the Tone Ahead of Fed

The June Empire State Manufacturing Index prints at 12:30 GMT. While regional, it offers the first read on factory sentiment this week. Markets are still pricing in a near-certainty the Fed will hold rates steady Wednesday, but soft manufacturing data could reinforce dovish expectations later this summer.

All Eyes on Lennar for Housing Sector Clues

• Lennar (LEN) reports after the bell
  • Street expects EPS of $1.94 on revenue of 8.2 billion, both down sharply year over year
  • Analysts are watching for margin pressure from incentives and price cuts as demand cools
  • The report will be a key pulse check on homebuilders and discretionary consumer sentiment

Crude Slips After Explosive Spike—But Risk Premium Persists

Crude futures are volatile after last week’s 7% surge. WTI is hovering near $72.80 and Brent just under $74.00, both off early highs. Markets remain fixated on the threat of disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for nearly 20% of global oil flows. Iran’s threat to close the route could trigger a sharp repricing in energy markets if materialized.

Gold Pulls Back as Traders Lock In Safe-Haven Profits

Gold is down slightly to $3,414 per ounce after touching a two-month high. The metal remains in demand amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty, but profit-taking is underway as traders assess how far the conflict might spread.

Technical Battlegrounds: Major Indexes Test Key Levels

• S&P 500 Index futures face resistance at 6,127 with a major ceiling at 6,288.75. Support zones at 5,808.75 and 5,648.25 are in focus if selling resumes. The 50-day moving average at 5958.23 is initial support, while the 200-day moving average at 5751.40 provides the major support.
  • Nasdaq 100 futures hold above the 200-day moving average. Bulls need a clean break above 22,322.50 to retest highs near 22,873.25.
  • Dow Jones futures are capped at 43,516, with the 50-day average at 41,627 providing immediate downside buffer.

Setup for the Week

Markets are entering a high-stakes stretch with geopolitical risk driving commodities and Wednesday’s Fed decision looming. Energy flows and Fed language will be the twin catalysts shaping risk appetite over the coming days.

More Information in our Economic Calendar.